2025 could mark Apple’s triumphant return to the top of the smartphone industry. According to Counterpoint Research, Apple is poised to reclaim the global smartphone market leader position for the first time in over 14 years. Projections indicate that Apple could ship more than 243 million iPhones next year, capturing a market share of approximately 19.4%, overtaking key rival Samsung, which is expected to ship around 235 million units with an 18.7% market share.

iPhone 17 Drives Growth

The surge is largely fueled by the highly popular iPhone 17 series. In Q3 2025, shipments showed 9% growth compared to the same period for iPhone 16, signaling strong global demand. Major markets are particularly promising: in the United States, demand for the iPhone 17 rose 12% in the first four weeks post-launch, reflecting sustained consumer trust and enthusiasm. In China, growth was even higher, increasing by 18% year-over-year.

The COVID-19 Upgrade Wave

Another factor boosting Apple’s momentum is the large-scale upgrade cycle from users who purchased smartphones during the COVID-19 era. As these devices reach the end of their lifecycle, Apple’s vast customer base is taking advantage of the upgrade wave, driving synchronized demand across key markets.

Analysts Predict Long-Term Leadership

Experts believe this surge is more than a temporary success. Current trends indicate that the gap between Apple and Samsung may widen further, particularly as more users prioritize system stability and the seamless Apple ecosystem connectivity across devices.

Counterpoint Research predicts that Apple won’t just regain the top spot in 2025, but is likely to maintain leadership until at least 2029, marking a significant turning point in the smartphone industry unseen in over a decade.

 origin: gsmarena